Watch Headlines

People have been wondering about what to watch for in headlines related to our current plague of blood on the river. In this blog I cover some general headlines on the general theme. I also go into detail about gas for heating Europe this winter.

Nord Stream Pipe Attack Details

The Nord Stream pipes were bombed on the prophetic date for the plague of blood, so we are generally watching all the aspects of that event to inform headlines going on since.

So a very large natural gas pipeline, owned by Russian interests, is attacked by a state actor on the date. The German public had been protesting over the new pipe. They were demanding the new pipe be permitted by the German government to allow more natural gas into Germany.

This on the hope of reduced energy costs and to make Germans less beholden to trouble with gas transit across Ukraine. Of course the German government only does what their Anglo Saxon overlords tell them. Otherwise, they would have given the permit for the pipe the day it was finished. The protests had a double meaning.

So some state actor basically attacked Germany. They attacked the German public at large.

We know from reading Putin speeches that he considers Europe to currently be colonized by the Anglo Saxons. King Charles, in particular, would be Pharaoh by this. Moses, of course being Putin.

Blame The UK

There was a news blurb, generally sourced to Hal Turner, about a new detail on the Nord Stream pipeline attack.

His report indicates that there was a text message sent from UK PM Truss to an American official. The time on the text was about 1 minute after the alarms went off in the pipeline control rooms. So about 1 minute after the attacks on the pipes.

The text was sent over the public text network, not encrypted, not on military channels, from an iPhone. It was sent around midnight UK time, that simply said something like 'it is done.'

Strong time correlations are the first clue to go look for specific causality. Time correlation is a very important tool for debugging many problems. In this case a strong argument can be made she was texting about the pipe blasts.

This was hours before the public learned what was going on. She was reporting to her American boss that her people had done the job. The receiver of that text must have known what was going on, so this is a premeditated event.

This may be why she was drummed out of office so fast. Either no respect for security protocols, or else to take the fall for causing World War III.

Of course anyone with the means to plan such an attack also has the means to shift blame to someone else. This is how all false flags are carried out. This is why the perpetrators of 911 can never be accurately identified.

But, in this case, Hal's report indicates the Russians do believe the UK is the responsible party. So they have the first act in World War III that they can now blame on the UK, or in their more general terms, the Anglo Saxons.

The Russians have the moral basis they need with their public to escalate the war when they so choose. Hal has since reported the Russians called in the UK ambassador over this, so it continues.

I would expect material escalation in these war headlines following the dates for the plagues as we go forward. This is but 1 example.

Other Themed Headlines

So the theme is trouble in wet venues between Russia and the Anglo Saxons.

Other parts of the world are not as interesting. So a bridge collapse in India is not as strong in terms of matching the venue for this plague. I would list that collapse as more off theme.

There have been other water transit headlines. The bridge linking mainland Russia to Crimea was attacked. This was interesting because it is like the I-35W bridge collapse in Minneapolis that marked the same plague in the USA previously. That bridge attack is on theme.

There have also been other undersea events. Especially cutting of communications cables in the Atlantic. These are mostly off the coast of Europe. Single cables to islands will get news reports. The rest of the network is redundant so only network operators will know for sure what is going on. If this is someone's strategy, then we learn more only when many cables are cut and continents are isolated. These cable cuts are on theme because pipes and cables are so similar.

Problems with shipping in the Black Sea should also be considered on theme. The Russians had agreed to escort grain out of Ukraine, but have had to suspend that because of attacks on their ships.

Unlike Charles, Putin is playing a religious game. This is causing him to take morally defensible positions whenever confronted. So he returns to protecting food supplies when his people are at risk. This is causing him to go slow militarily. Putin's actions are on a theme of righteousness.

Charles operates from secrecy, he is not running a national revival. Charles is only publicly the figurative head of state. So he is not judged by his public for his secret actions. This contrast should remain a theme for the next few years.

I have heard reports of potential strikes against dams in Ukraine. Both sides in the Ukraine war have vulnerable dams. If either side strikes a major dam the other side is likely to blow a dam in retaliation. Any headlines related to strikes on dams in the region are on theme. Especially the theme of blood on the river.

Natural Gas

But the big thing to watch until next spring are all headlines related to natural gas. This is what those busted pipes were built to transport. Gas powers winter home heating and industry across Europe.

There have been many commentators saying everything is fine with gas in Europe, but this is not so. BASF, for example, a major chemical company, has said they are abandoning Europe for China for their chemical processing work. This because European energy costs are no longer competitive.

LNG, Liquified Natural Gas, coming into Europe is not cost competitive. The reason pipelines exist for fuels nearly everywhere is because very small pipes quickly surpass even railroads for overland transportation. Think of an LNG transport ship as like a train at sea. This is not the same as pipelines.

Remember Texas

Last winter there was a freezing ice storm across much of Texas. The green energy from wind farms failed because of ice on blades. Other sources of electricity also failed. Texas has its own electric grid so very long distance imports of electricity were not possible.

This is different, say, than the US west coast where electricity can theoretically be transferred from British Columbia to Southern California. This is not great because of long distance power losses. Those losses must be paid for, so that sort of transfer is not without cost. But it is possible to keep the lights on when needed.

So last winter, during that storm in Texas, the hourly market for electricity went to no supply, at all. This means electricity was unavailable at ANY price.

This scenario means the math for computing price for electricity goes berserk. Normally pricing mechanisms balance supply with demand. But they don't work in no supply scenarios. The net effect was prices skyrocketed as the denominator of the pricing equation, the electric supply, went to zero.

Next Winter

There are repeated reports that European seasonal gas storage levels are normal for heading into winter. So far so good. But storage is how traders get gas through the pipes in the off season. Storage augments the gas network delivering at near full capacity through the heating season.

Is that network capacity normal going into winter? No.

So that storage capacity is being tasked to deliver in ways never seen before.

The headline to watch for is no supply in heating fuels in much of Europe later this winter. Heating fuels do have substitutions. This means watch for side effects in all energy markets in Europe.

Oil, coal, even firewood, can be used to heat houses. But not everybody can just switch. A natural gas fired forced air furnace does not work for oil or coal. Houses without fireplaces, or with only tin fireplaces, cannot burn coal. Those who can switch will, but not everyone can do that.

So the demand for gas this winter will be lower than normal. Industrial users are reducing usage too. BASF is but 1 of many examples.

Will these reductions and substitutions be enough to avoid a no supply scenario some time this winter in European heating fuels?

Only insiders in the heating fuels industry will have a good view of this right now. Nobody knows for sure how much coal and especially wood will substitute in private houses. So nobody knows for sure what supply will really be like this winter.

The UK energy grid has already warned of no supply problems impacting their customers later this winter. So this is coming to some extent. How bad, exactly, this becomes is still to be known.

If there are supply problems in Europe, they will appear in other places too. Anywhere that gets natural gas by tanker is at risk. In the USA that means the northeast, which is not well connected to the North American natural gas pipeline network.

This plague runs across the winter, so we would expect to see fulfillment headlines related to the initial headline all winter. So watch natural gas, all winter. Watch substitutions for natural gas, especially oil, all winter. Watch King Charles attempt to goad Russia into war, all winter. If this was really an attack on Germany, watch for more of those, again, all winter.

The headline situation should only change from this basic model next spring when we move onto the plague of frogs.

More Later,